The “Shock Test” from How To Decide by Annie Duke
Take this quick “shock test” from How to Decide to see if you are overconfident in your estimates (like I was!)
Category: Book post
Criticisms of “Bullshit Jobs” by David Graeber
Graeber got 4 things wrong in his book, Bullshit Jobs. (1) That the rise of the information economy is bad. (2) That there has been a “bullshitization” of work. (3) That bullshit jobs are almost always demoralising. (4) The reasons for the inverse relationship between social value and economic value.
What I think Graeber got right in “Bullshit Jobs”
In this post I outline what I think David Graeber got right in his book, Bullshit Jobs. Other
My 7 categories of “bullshit jobs”
In the book Bullshit Jobs, David Graeber suggested 5 categories of bullshit jobs. However, I found it more useful to look at […]
Decision Hygiene
Decision hygiene helps you make better decisions. It’s like washing your hands in that it’s good practice but you don’t know what errors you avoid by doing it.
Objective Ignorance
Objective ignorance is the idea that many things on which the future depends simply cannot be known.Objective ignorance is higher the longer into the future a prediction is. The future is messy and minor events can have large consequences. Many things are just unknowable.
How to Reduce Noise and Objections to Reducing Noise
A summary of the methods for reducing noise, and common objections to doing so, in the book Noise by Kahneman, Sibony and Sunstein.
Prosecutor’s Fallacy and Base Rate Fallacy
The prosecutor’s fallacy and base rate fallacy are related ideas that both involve conditional probabilities. The prosecutor’s fallacy mixes up the probability that someone matches, given their innocence, with the probability that someone is innocent, given a match. You don’t care about the first probability – you already know there is a match.
The Zettelkasten method
The Zettelkasten note-taking method involves taking lots of short notes containing only one idea. The notes can then be linked to other notes.